French Election: Second Autopsy

The patient was murdered

On this pleasant sunny day, France has re-elected Emmanuel Macron. Frankly, I had reluctantly given to many of my friends (I don’t like giving probabilities, they mean nothing in these contexts) a prediction of 55-45 for Macron and it wasn’t far off from the 58-42 result. But have no illusions, pure luck.

How our analysis performed

Before we go anywhere else, we must first and foremost go back to our first analysis and measure how it performed against the reality. The result was much closer than the first time around in 2017. Le Pen has achieved the best result that a “far right” candidate has ever scored in the history of the Fifth Republic. Macron is the first President to be re-elected since 2002.

The amount of people that showed up to vote was 71,8%. This is a decrease compared to the last election, and it’s also a decrease compared to the first round. Far more people voted Le Pen than what was expected. In fact throughout the Caribbean territories (Guadeloupe, Martinique) and French Guyana, Le Pen won with large margins. These were areas that were dominated by Mélenchon in the first round.

This means that many of Mélenchon’s voters did not vote, and some of them actually went for Le Pen. This is the diagnostic of the last post.

All in all, not bad. Way too close for a regime which claimed that the far right would be convincingly defeated by a union of the mainstream right wingers, the centrists and leftists. It shows you plain and simple, that this regime has no energy. It cannot rally any sort of credible popular support, which is its whole claim to fame in the first place.

Road to the Legislatives

Historically in France the Legislative elections, electing the members of the Assembly which is the lower house of the Parliament, mirror that of the Presidential ones. This allows the President to govern effectively with a Prime Minister from his own party. There have been some exceptions, such as during François Mittérand’s (first socialist president, reigned for 14 years) presidency where he had to share power with Jacques Chirac (Gaullist right winger), as well as during Jacques Chirac’s own presidency with Lionel Jospin (socialist) as Prime Minister.

Such a period is named the “Cohabitation”. Traditionally, the President then assumes all matters relating to foreign policy and the Prime Minister those relating to domestic affairs. When this first occurred it was said — correctly in my view — that the Fifth Republic was dead. Charles de Gaulle had envisioned a monarchical presidency which clearly stood above the other branches of government.

The very possibility of such an arrangement rendered this void. To diminish the possibility, Jacques Chirac proposed a constitutional referendum asking if the people approved the reduction of the presidential term from seven to five years. This would fix the length of presidential terms to the same as the term of an assemblyman, and thus the elections would coincide a few months apart.

Now, we’re facing a real possibility that Macron’s dwindling popularity will not net him the supermajority necessary for a rubber stamp assembly, to govern on his own. Keep in mind that Macron created his own party called “La République En Marche (LREM)” meaning The Republic On the Move, with a connotation of moving forward, working properly, etc.

There are three different possibilities going forward. Either Macron manages it again and governs with his own party’s supermajority, or two distinct wildcards appear. Let’s go through both of them. I’m mostly going to let them speak for themselves as they are both eloquent enough to convey their ideas.

Revival of Mélenchon

Snapping back to life right after the result was announced, our resident leftist icon Jean-Luc Mélenchon stood up on a stage and reacted:

Ladies and Gentlemen, for this second round Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron barely represented a third of the registered electors. The urns have settled it, Ms. Le Pen is beaten. France has clearly refused to place its future in her hands, and that is very good news for the unity of our People. Now, Mr. Macron is the most badly elected President of the Fifth Republic. His presidential monarchy survives by default and under the constraint of a biased choice. He floats above an ocean of abstention, blank, and void votes. My thoughts turn towards the future victims of this situation. The people that depend on the RSA¹ and will have to work for free for 20 hours. The worn out people that will have to retire three years later. The people who are financially strangled who will not see price controls. The people that know to which extent the ecological inaction of Mr. Macron is a crime. The people that see with sadness the destruction of the State and the country sold at the cut. To all I say, do not give up. On the contrary, get in on the action. Frankly, and massively.

Democracy can give us once again the means to change direction. The third round begins tonight. The 12th and 19th of June, the Legislative Elections will take place. You can beat Mr. Macron and choose another path. The 12th and 19th of June, another world is still possible if you elect a majority. I do say a majority of deputies of the new Popular Union which must grow. The popular bloc which constituted itself around my candidacy to the Presidential election is in this country from now on the Third Estate that can change everything, if it unites and grows. The 12th and 19th of June by calling you to elect me as Prime Minister, I call you in truth to bring to life a new future together for our People. Courage, action, determination, always refusing fatality and resignation. Long Live France, Long Live the Republic.

As you can see, our friend Mélenchon is making a bid to be the Prime Minister. With around 22% of electors leaning his way and potentially more, he has a real chance to force a coalition to choose him.

Return of the Z

Similarly, Zemmour got up on his own podium and announced his plan for the legislatives:

I would like tonight, to convey my disappointment and my sadness. Even though we were millions to want an end to Emmanuel Macron’s quinquennat², the lovers of France have lost and Emmanuel Macron has been easily re-elected. He was the first President to have been re-elected without exiting a cohabitation period, and even when he himself was the object of a massive rejection from our compatriots. His duel with Marine Le Pen was presented as the revenge of that of 2017. But the announced revenge fell short. For too long, those who passionately love France are defeated. For too long, those who wish to defend her identity and put an end to immigration are bitterly disappointed on an election night. Alas. Alas. Alas.

It is the eight time that defeat strikes the Le Pen name. I saw this defeat coming for years and it is with no pleasure that I was announcing it. I did what I could to avoid this result. I made a commitment to do so. I was unable to do so. By calling, without lingering, from the evening of the first round to vote for Marine Le Pen, I was still praying to be wrong. Unfortunately for France, unfortunately for the French, it was indeed Emmanuel Macron who was elected. Are we therefore condemned to lose? Is there some fatality that causes all national ideas to lose elections, while a majority of our People ardently wishes that France remains France. No. I want to say tonight that there is no fatality. We have reasons to hope.

Our party “Reconquest”, is strong in youth, this beautiful, militant and eager youth. Our party “Reconquest” is strong in its 122,000 adherents. And I thank those who continue to join us every day. It is strong in its thousands of “cadres” everywhere in France, strong of its talents, creativity and skills. We will therefore be at the forefront of the fight to wrestle toe to toe against the work of deconstruction carried out by Emmanuel Macron. We will fight for our ideas in every city, and every village of France. On the Internet, and in the media.

But there cannot be any electoral victory without an alliance with all the Right wingers. Between the popular classes and the patriotic bourgeoisie, between the grandparents and their grandchildren, between peripheral france and the inhabitants of the big cities, that want to continue living in a French France. The political situation of today requires us to act. The Legislative Elections that occur next June already see the constitution of two big political blocs, around Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Two blocs, one Macronist and one Islamo-Leftist. Two blocs which organize themselves, assemble, and are ready to face each other in a game which will surely have only one loser: France. Would the national side be the only one incapable of uniting itself? Do we want to give full powers to Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon?

I do not want it. We are millions to not want it. The national bloc must also unite and assemble itself. Our responsibility is immense. It is for this that I call for a national union for the Legislatives. We must forget our quarrels and unite our strengths. It is possible, it is essential, it is our duty. Let us build, as quickly as possible, the first coalition of the Right and the Patriots so that the elected officials of “Reconquest”, of the National Rally, of “Get Up France!”, of the Republicans that do not wish to rally to Macron’s side, may have a chance to weigh in or even to dominate in the next Assembly. Our coalition is not an option, it is a necessity. It is a duty. We have a country to reconquer. Union makes might. Our coalition must make France.

Long Live the Republic, and above all, above all, Long Live France.

Zemmour is essentially, and admirably, appealing once again to an imaginary coalition of right wingers to unite and scrape up some seats at the Assembly, potentially elevating him to power so that he may block Macron’s agenda. A beautiful tale. A tale is all it is.

The future

Congratulations for making it this far. You’ve probably skipped a lot of the lofty speeches above and how right you are. They can be resumed in three words: Bla bla bla.

There has never been a better time to be apolitical in France. The cold hard truth is that the democratic system has run its course. There is simply no way for anyone aiming for the prosperity of the Nation to succeed in such an environment.

The realistic and boring results of the upcoming elections (God, aren’t we all tired of these things?) are a lower amount of seats for the Regent, some interesting gains for the National camp and much more seats than can be afforded for the multiculturalist bordelo. No one cares.

France is lost, how sad. How very sad. It is a nation that has been in decline for almost a century now — more visibly for a few decades, and the end of the line is approaching slowly and painfully. The regime is out of breath, and it’s being bullied by its useful idiots. The future holds more immigration, a dwindling economic situation and the continued erosion of the dignity that is left to the French people.

It’s not so apocalyptic, it’s called the Third World and it’s coming to a theater near you. Don’t worry, you’ll still be able to visit and sample the food. Might want to watch out while taking the subway though. And when the story reaches its apotheosis, then and only then, for no reason at all, people will accept him.

1. The RSA stands for “Revenue de Solidarité Active”, Active Solidarity Revenue. It consists of paying anyone above 25 whose revenue does not reach the RSA threshold a sum of around 550 euros. It also applies to foreigners living in France.

2. A five-year term.